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Thursday, May 19, 2016

EgyptAir Flight MS804 Disappears From Paris to Cairo

According to Flightradar24, flight 804 left the Charles de Gaulle International Airport in Paris at 11:21 pm local and was scheduled to arrive at Cairo International Airport at 2:55 am local. Disappeared at 37,000 ft. 10 miles into Egyptian airspace, at 2:45 am local Cairo time.Considering their altitude, the plane's last reported location, and the glide ratio of the A320, they could not have made it back to land in the event of a non-catastrophic full-power loss. If the plane is still in tact (and that's a big if), it is definitely in the water.

If it was a dual engine failure they would've reported it to ATC. The last thing you want to do is successfully ditch and no one know where you are. Additionally it looks like this dropped off of the primary radar, so mid-air disintegration is more likely.I wouldn't worry about it. The number of incident (for lack of a better term) now days is miniscule compared to all the hijackings and bombings in the 70s and 80s, especially given how many more planes per day are flying through the air. You're probably more likely to get struck by lightning than to have something bad happen on a flight.

Despite the massive media coverage, stuff like this is still exceedingly rare. You're far more likely to die driving home from the airport than on the plane itself. Though I admit, its not much fun to imagine a plane disintegrating mid air.But an engine loss would be immediately reported to ATC. The fact that no call was made from the plane despite being in range of Egypt ATC means that the event was almost certainly sudden and catastrophic. My bet is either a catpstrophic decompression due to structural failure or a bomb.

Are these radars unable to pickup smaller debris/debris fields? Like if it broke apart would that be evident by the large single radar signature turning into multiple smaller signatures on the radar?Apparently ATC radars are designed to filter out radar returns that don't appear to be from aircraft. So if it was breaking apart or even flying in a way that was odd (like a nose dive) it wouldn't show up on radar.That's ATC radar, but there are others. Military and weather radars may pick up something, especially military ones, which are designed to track objects that don't want to be found.

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